Coupling System Dynamics and Mixed Cellular Automata for Carbon-Economic Optimization in Coastal Zones: A Multi-Scenario Simulation Under SSP-RCPs

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Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have exacerbated global warming, elevating the importance of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in achieving carbon neutrality. This is especially true in coastal areas, which face dual pressures from rapid urbanization and the need to protect carbon sinks. This study developed an SD-MCCA coupling framework to predict the dynamic changes in LULC in four SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) in the coastal zone of Zhejiang Province from 2020 to 2100. Among them, the carbon storage was estimated by the InVEST model, and the dual-target optimization was carried out using the NSGA-II algorithm. Results indicated that construction land expanded significantly across all scenarios (50.3–110.2%), leading to a decline in carbon storage. However, outcomes were highly scenario-dependent; by 2100, carbon storage under the SSP126 pathway (1032.94 Mt) was notably higher than under the SSP585 pathway (1012.90 Mt). Coastal wetlands and forests emerged as major contributors to carbon storage, exhibiting high positive contribution scores, while construction land sites show significant negative correlations. Dual-target optimization achieved collaborative improvement: the optimized SSP126 scenario increased carbon storage by 1.16%, while economic benefits increased by 9.05%. The policy proposal emphasizes the priority of the SSP126 scenario, restricts the expansion of construction land, and enforces the ecological red line of wetlands and forests, guided by the phased Pareto optimal strategy.

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