Cross-protection against highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus from seasonal influenza vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis of ferret studies

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The recent surge in spillover events of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b to humans and mammals in North America has raised urgent pandemic concerns. Human H5N1 vaccines are unavailable in most countries. We synthesized data from ferret challenge trials to evaluate whether widely available seasonal influenza vaccines confer cross-protection against lethal H5N1 infection. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science for ferret studies of lethal H5N1 challenge published up to 5 July 2025 (PROSPERO #CRD42024520346). Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to compare vaccine efficacy (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines and H5N1 vaccines against H5N1-related mortality. Seroprotection was defined as a neutralizing antibody titre of ≥1:40. We identified 35 studies (157 trials). Seasonal influenza vaccines without N1 did not confer significant cross-protection (five trials; VE 14.8%, 95% CI –3.6 to 30.0). In contrast, VE was 73% for N1-containing seasonal influenza vaccines (19 trials; 95% CI 54–84) and 77% for H5N1 vaccines overall (133 trials; 95% CI 72–82) (p = 0.52). The VE of N1-containing seasonal influenza vaccines was modestly lower than that of H5N1 vaccines with seroprotection (88%; 66 trials; 95% CI 84–91; p = 0.009), but comparable to H5N1 vaccines that did not achieve seroprotection (63%; 67 trials; 95% CI 52–71; p = 0.29). The VE of seasonal influenza vaccines against H5N1 was robust across sensitivity analyses, with no evidence of publication bias (p = 0.99). Seasonal influenza vaccines significantly reduce H5N1-associated mortality in ferret trials, suggesting the cross-protection potential of currently available vaccines. Human studies are warranted.

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