Prognostic Power of Ensemble Learning in Colorectal Cancer with Peritoneal Metastasis: A Multi-Institutional Analysis

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Background: Owing to significant clinical heterogeneity, the achievement of accurate survival forecasting for individuals with colorectal cancer and peritoneal metastasis continues to be a complex undertaking. We aimed to transcend traditional prognostic limitations by evaluating machine learning boosting models against standard regression-based methods in terms of estimating overall survival (OS). Methods: Utilizing a multi-institutional registry of 150 patients diagnosed with synchronous peritoneal metastasis of colorectal cancer, we integrated 124 clinicopathological variables to refine our predictive models. Beyond standard preprocessing—including standardization and median imputation—we rigorously compared XGBoost and LightGBM against Ridge, Lasso, and linear regression via five-fold cross-validation. To specifically address right-censoring, an XGBoost Cox model was implemented and validated using Harrell’s C-index, with SHAP and LIME providing essential model interpretability. Results: Boosting models consistently outperformed linear alternatives, which struggled with high error rates and negative R2 values. Specifically, XGBoost achieved an MAE of 475 ± 60 and an RMSE of 585 ± 88. The XGBoost Cox model reached a C-index of 0.64 ± 0.06. SHAP analysis highlighted inflammatory markers and peritoneal disease extent as the most influential prognostic drivers. Conclusions: While boosting models offer a clear accuracy advantage over linear methods, their prognostic power remains moderate. These findings underscore the potential of ensemble learning in oncology, yet mandate external validation before these tools can be integrated into clinical decision-making.

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