Performance of Blood-Based Indirect Scores Compared to Transient Elastography in Children with Chronic Liver Disease

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Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) in children requires long-term monitoring. Liver biopsy and transient elastography (TE) are resource-intensive methods that require specialized equipment and trained personnel. Simple indirect fibrosis scores based on routine laboratory parameters offer a potentially cost-effective alternative but have not been systematically evaluated in pediatric populations with diverse CLD etiologies. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the performance of several indirect fibrosis and cirrhosis scores in predicting significant (≥F2) and advanced (≥F3) fibrosis and cirrhosis (F4) in children with CLD using TE as a comparator. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of children with CLD evaluated at a tertiary center between January 2023 and June 2025. TE results and routine laboratory data were used to calculate fibrosis scores, including APRI, FIB-4, FibroIndex, FORNS, GPR, GUCI, King’s score, and Lok’s index. ROC analyses were performed to assess each score’s ability to discriminate significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Optimal cut-offs were established using the Youden index. Results: GPR showed the strongest concordance with TE-based fibrosis classification across both fibrosis thresholds, achieving an AUROC of 0.835 for significant fibrosis and a superior 0.917 for advanced fibrosis. FibroIndex and APRI also demonstrated good discriminatory power for advanced disease. Utilizing mathematically optimized cut-offs, GPR (0.45) and APRI (0.84) achieved good negative predictive values (100% and 95%) and sensitivities (100% and 85%) for advanced fibrosis, establishing them as potentially valuable screening tools. For cirrhosis detection (F4), Lok’s Index performed best (AUROC 0.854). Conclusions: In this diverse pediatric cohort, simple indirect scores—particularly GPR, APRI, and FibroIndex—demonstrated the highest concordance relative to TE findings, with negative predictive values up to 100% for GPR. This indicates that they can serve as reliable first-line screening tools when TE is unavailable. While their good negative predictive values allow for the confident exclusion of severe disease—potentially sparing many children from invasive testing—their low positive predictive values limit their role in definitive diagnosis. The systematic failure of adult-derived, age-dependent formulas in this cohort underscores the critical need for specialized pediatric biomarkers.

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