Temporal and Spatial Changes of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Jilin Province During 1960–2019 and Future Projections Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Le résumé fourni par la source

Extreme precipitation constitutes one of the most devastating climatic resulting from global climate change. Jilin Province, a significant commodities grain base in China by a temperate monsoon climate, is particularly susceptible to flood disasters caused by extreme precipitation, usually occurring from late July to early August. The 2010 flood impacted moreover 5.12 million individuals and resulted in direct economic damages amounting to 45.1 billion CNY. However, research on the spatiotemporal characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation in Jilin Province is still quite inadequate. This study examined the spatiotemporal distribution and future forecasts of extreme precipitation utilizing daily meteorological data from 31 stations (1960–2019) and three CMIP6 models (CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, FGOALS-g3) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Eleven extreme precipitation indices, as specified by the WMO, were analyzed utilizing linear regression, the Mann–Kendall test, wavelet analysis, and inverse distance weighting interpolation. The findings indicated that from 1960 to 2019, extreme precipitation demonstrated traits of “increased frequency and total amount, decreased intensity”, with a significant decline in CDD (−2.184 d·(10a)−1, p < 0.001), a notable increase in PRCPTOT (1.493 mm·(10a)−1, p < 0.05), and a significant reduction in SD II (−0.016 mm·d−1·(10a)−1, p < 0.01). The majority of indicators had a predominant cycle of 30 to 50 years. A significant northwest-to-southeast gradient characterized most indicators, with PRCPTOT varying from 327.5 mm in Baicheng to 824.3 mm in Tonghua. Future projections (2025–2100) suggested scenario-dependent intensification. Under SSP5-8.5, all three models forecast substantial increases in precipitation amount indices (PRCPTOT: 2.071–2.457 mm·(10a)−1) and SD II (0.010–0.013 mm·d−1·(10a)−1), reversing the past downward trend in intensity. The anticipated alterations exhibited a northwest-to-southeast gradient, with PRCPTOT increases above 230 mm in the central and southeastern regions. These findings offer a scientific basis for flood management and climate change adaptation in Jilin Province and analogous areas.

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