A formula for the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease in a heterogeneous population with structured mixing

Le résumé fourni par la source

The basic reproduction number of an infectious disease is known to depend on the structure of contacts between individuals in a population. This relationship has been explored mathematically through two well-known models: one which depends on a matrix of contact rates between different demographic groups, and another which depends on the variability of contact rates over the population. Here we introduce a model that combines and generalises these two approaches. We derive a formula for the basic reproduction number and validate it through comparisons to simulated outbreaks. Applying this method to contact survey data collected in Belgium between 2020 and 2022, we find that our model produces higher estimates of the basic reproduction number and larger relative changes over periods when social contact behaviour was changing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis suggests some practical considerations when using contact data in models of infectious disease transmission.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.