Cancer mortality predictions for 2026 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on prostate cancer

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INTRODUCTION: We estimated cancer mortality figures for 2026 in five major Asian countries and Australia, with a specific focus on prostate cancer. METHODS: We computed country- and sex-specific annual age-standardized mortality rates (ASRs) for all cancers combined and for the 10 most common cancer sites, using data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division up to 2022 or the most recent available year. We predicted figures for 2026 and estimated the number of avoided cancer deaths in 1994-2026. RESULTS: Predicted mortality rates for all cancers combined in 2026 are favourable across all considered countries and in both sexes, with the largest declines expected in the Republic of Korea (-20.5% in males and -10.2% in females compared with 2020-2022). In 2026, the lowest predicted male rate is expected in the Philippines (72.1 per 100 000), and the highest one in Australia (92.3 per 100 000). Among females, the lowest predicted ASR (42.2 per 100 000) is in the Republic of Korea, whereas the highest one (74.1 per 100 000) in the Philippines. Trends are generally favourable for lung, stomach, colorectum, and other major neoplasms considered, except pancreas. Predicted prostate cancer mortality is favourable in all countries and across all age groups. Rates are expected to remain low in Hong Kong SAR, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, with ASRs below 4 per 100 000 males. Since the 1993 observed peak rate, an estimated 132 000 total cancer deaths were avoided in Hong Kong SAR, 75 000 in Israel, 1 366 000 in Japan, 720 000 in the Republic of Korea, 328 000 in Australia, and 102 000 among men in the Philippines. CONCLUSIONS: Declining cancer mortality is predicted in the countries considered. These trends largely reflect smoking cessation along with improvements in prevention, early detection, and treatment. However, substantial geographic disparities persist, highlighting the need for strengthened cancer control strategies, particularly in ageing populations.

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