The Effect of Flash Floods on the Rate of Violent Trauma in Texas

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Introduction: Increase in temperature and natural disasters may have impacts on individual behavior and cause social destabilization; however, there is no clear evidence regarding the impact of flash flooding. The study sought to evaluate the impact of flash floods on rates of violent trauma in Texas. Methods: Data from the Texas EMS Registry between 2018-2022 following 16 flash floods was used. Violent trauma totals were calculated within the county of the flash flood incidence. The baseline rate was established two weeks prior to the flash flood, and the post period extended two weeks post flood. Multivariable linear regression was performed to compare changes in violent trauma rates and county level covariables. Analyses were adjusted for county median income, county population, county social vulnerability index (SVI), total cost of damaged property, and the county baseline rate. Results: The baseline and post-flood median rate of violent trauma per county was 14.5 and 13.5 cases per week, respectively. Baseline violent trauma rates were positively correlated with county population (r=0.76), and increased SVI (r=0.53), and negatively correlated with increased income (r=-0.30). Testing showed no significant difference in the rates of violent trauma in the post-flash flood group compared to baseline (z=0.547, p=0.5843). Further analysis showed that for every $10,000 decrease in median income, there was an increase in weekly violent trauma by 2.67 cases (95% CI -0.87, 6.21; p=0.12) post flash flood. Conclusion: The findings demonstrate a positive correlation between the social vulnerability index and baseline rates, and a negative correlation between county median income and baseline rates. The findings also show a potential reduction in violent trauma in counties with higher income, indicating potential disparities in community resilience. Research with a larger population of flash floods is needed to further evaluate the impacts of flash floods and the potential protective factors against fluctuations in violence rates.

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