Enhancing pandemic surveillance and testing: a simulation modeling study utilizing german multicenter data with federated machine learning

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The COVID-19 pandemic has starkly exposed queryPlease check author names and affiliation if presented correctly.vulnerabilities in the management of surveillance and testing. Significant challenges associated with physical tests, i.e., PCR and antigen tests, include their high cost, resource-intensive nature, turnaround time, and sensitivity. Although the literature has underscored the potential of Machine Learning-based methods for the digital diagnosis of COVID-19, developing high-performing models crucially depends on extensive datasets exceeding the amount available in one healthcare institution. Federated Machine Learning offers a solution to that dilemma. The aim of this research is to evaluate the potential impact of Federated Learning-based digital COVID-19 diagnosis on the trajectory of a pandemic. Therefore, we design a multidimensional evaluation framework, consisting of a simulation study utilizing real-world lab parameters from multiple hospitals and a newly developed performance indicator, named Testing Evaluation for Pandemics. We find that Federated Learning can significantly support the decision-making process of diagnosing COVID-19 at the beginning of a pandemic while saving scarce resources. However, a warm-up phase is needed until constant performance similar to physical tests is reached. In addition, lab parameters have a high prediction power for the diagnosis and are well suited because of patient welfare reasons.

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