Extreme Coastal Waves Due To Australian East Coast Lows in a Warming Climate

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Abstract The southeast coastline of Australia is frequently impacted by East Coast Lows (ECLs), hybrid storms with both tropical and extratropical characteristics. Although typically short‐lived and spatially limited, ECLs can rapidly intensify and generate extreme waves that cause severe coastal erosion and associated hazards. Their small scale and transient nature make ECLs difficult to resolve in conventional global climate models. This study utilizes the HiRes‐MESECA atmospheric data set, comprising 12 historically significant ECL events between 2001 and 2016 that are re‐simulated under an RCP8.5 climate scenario using a pseudo global warming approach. Triple‐nested WaveWatchIII modeling, resolving waves to a spatial resolution of 100 m near the coast, was used to simulate ECL‐driven waves at the 10 m isobath coastal boundary. Results indicate that future ECLs may generate reduced peak wave heights, wave periods and overall cumulative wave power along southeast Australia, even considering an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Together, these findings suggest that extreme ECL‐driven wave impacts along southeast Australia may weaken in a warming climate, reinforcing emerging evidence of declining wave extremes in the region.

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