‘We always make it work’: How Swedish dairy farmers manage and prepare for an unknown future of extreme weather

Le résumé fourni par la source

Extreme weather (EW) is reshaping dairy farming in Sweden, yet evidence remains limited on how farmers manage EW events and what they need to adapt to the future climate. The present study focused on free-text responses from a survey (n = 67 farms) on perceptions and challenges related to EW events, motivation for EW adaptations, and whom they seek support from for such adaptations. Text responses were thematically coded and analyzed using keyword co-occurrence networks (EW challenges) and Sankey diagrams (EW adaptations, motivations, and support-seeking). The survey analysis was supported by 18 previously analyzed in-depth conversations with Swedish dairy farmers about similar topics. The analysis illustrated that the 2018 drought/heatwave was a shared turning point that ”mainstreamed” EW in farm decision-making. Farmers primarily relied on self-built buffers (land, feed reserves, savings), but these proved fragile under repeated EW events. Water management dominated planned adaptations (irrigation, drainage, securing water sources) and emerged as a key link between crop resilience and animal welfare by stabilizing feed production and ensuring reliable water access for livestock. Across investment types, financial stability was farmers’ primary motivator. Farmers relied more on peers and advisers than on formal institutions and reported low trust in policy instruments. The observed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceived hazards (heat, drought, excessive rain, snow, wind) and impacts suggests that a one-size-fits-all policy is inadequate. The network results highlight tight links among feed and water scarcity, animal health, and farm finances; resilience was framed as farm survival rather than expansion. Farmers called for more transparent industry communication, fairer milk pricing, flexible regulation, and crisis instruments that create a ”second buffer” when private buffers fail.

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