Prediction of Land Subsidence in the Reclamation Area on the North Side of Gaolan Island, Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, China

Le résumé fourni par la source

The Gaolan Port National Economic Development Zone, located on the northern flank of Gaolan Island in Zhuhai City, holds substantial economic and strategic importance. Since the initial 1990 Gaolan Island Connection Seawall project, successive large-scale reclamation activities have led to pronounced ground subsidence. To address this, we developed a predictive model for soft soil settlement in reclamation areas by integrating coupling theory for fluid-saturated porous media with the 1D-EVP constitutive model to account for creep consolidation. We derived a finite difference discretization scheme, implemented a numerical code, and conducted rigorous model validation. Utilizing stratigraphic architecture interpreted from borehole, the model was applied to quantitatively predict the ultimate settlement magnitudes and temporal evolution at six sites. The results identify the thickness of the artificial soil layer and the underlying mud layer as the dominant factors controlling final settlement which ranges from 1.09 to 2.77 m. The model projects that settlement rates at all sites decline to between 1.03–2.60 cm/year within 14 years and 0.67–1.70 cm/year within 21 years post-reclamation. These predictions align with current InSAR measurements, which show rates below 3 cm/year. While the projected decrease in settlement rates enhances long-term geotechnical suitability, the spatial variability of strata necessitates ongoing monitoring to mitigate risks from differential settlement. This study provides a critical scientific basis for territorial spatial planning and infrastructure risk management in the area. The validated methodology establishes a transferable theoretical framework for forecasting settlement in coastal reclamation projects worldwide.

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