Age, Frailty, and Comorbidity as Predictors of Mortality and Failure to Rescue After Gastrointestinal Cancer Surgery: A National Retrospective Cohort Study

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BACKGROUND: Many older adults undergo gastrointestinal (GI) cancer surgery, yet the relative impacts of advanced age, comorbidity, and frailty on postoperative mortality and failure to rescue (FTR) remain unclear. We aimed to compare the impacts of these factors on postoperative outcomes in a large population-based cohort. METHOD: We conducted a national retrospective linked database study of patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent resection for GI or hepatobiliary cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand between 2005 and 2020. Age, comorbidity (C3 Comorbidity Score), and frailty (Hospital Frailty Risk Score) were examined as independent predictors of 90-day mortality, complications, and FTR (death following a complication). Logistic regression models were adjusted for demographic and clinical covariates. RESULTS: Among 21,729 patients (mean age 75.8 ± 6.8 years), 49.3% experienced one or more complications and 6.1% died within 90 days (FTR rate of 12.3%). In adjusted models, each additional 5 years of age increased 90-day mortality odds by 40% (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.40 and 95% CI 1.34-1.46). Although higher comorbidity (C3 > 3) and frailty (Hospital Frailty Risk Score > 15) also independently raised mortality risk (aOR 1.98 and 2.04, respectively), age exerted the largest effect on mortality and FTR. CONCLUSION: Chronological age, comorbidity, and frailty each predict worse outcomes following GI cancer surgery, but advanced age remains the dominant driver of 90-day mortality and FTR. These findings underscore the need for risk stratification, shared decision-making, and preoperative optimization as wells as intense surveillance for complications and early definitive care of older adults undergoing major oncologic operations.

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