PRecTimber 2.0: Forecasting quantitative and qualitative potentials for wood circularity in Germany, Finland, and Sweden

Le résumé fourni par la source

• PRecTimber 2.0 can forecast both the quantity and quality of post-consumer wood for EU countries. • By 2050, post-consumer wood quantities are predicted at 14.11 Mt in Germany, 1.64 Mt in Finland, and 2.74 Mt in Sweden. • In 2050, the construction sector remains the dominant source: 50 % in Germany, 64 % in Finland, 56 % in Sweden. • Under the status quo waste management scenario, there is untapped potential in post-consumer sawnwood from the construction sector: 25 % potentially suitable for lifespan extension, 59 % for material recycling. National bioeconomy strategies in Germany, Finland, and Sweden are expected to increase wood demand, putting pressure on already strained forest resources. Circularity of wood products can reduce this demand by improving resource efficiency, but barriers like uncertain availability and quality of post-consumer wood hinder implementation. This study optimizes and extends the PRecTimber model to forecast post-consumer wood quantities and qualities in Germany (revised with quality information), Finland, and Sweden. By 2050, predicted post-consumer wood volumes are 14.11 Mt in Germany, 1.64 Mt in Finland, and 2.74 Mt in Sweden, mainly from the construction sector. Our quality assessment methodology with scenario analysis (status quo S0 and improved scenarios S1–S2 with +10 and +20 percentage-point gains in key quality factors) reveals that the shares of post-consumer construction sawnwood suitable for lifespan extension and material recycling, respectively, are 25 % and 59 % under S0, 36 % and 50 % under S1, and 49 % and 38 % under S2. Leveraging these quantity and quality insights, policy reforms can support industries and technological innovation to optimize the use of post-consumer wood.

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