Designing for the Past in a Nonstationary Climate: Evidence from Cyclone Ditwah’s Extreme Rainfall in Sri Lanka

Le résumé fourni par la source

The November 2025 extreme rainfall event associated with Tropical Cyclone Ditwah caused catastrophic flooding and landslides across Sri Lanka. This study presents a national-scale statistical and Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF)-based assessment of the event using long-term rain gauge observations, extreme value analysis, and climate scenario-based projections. The 24-h rainfall data from 46 stations were analyzed for 1-, 2-, and 3-day durations. Historical annual maximum series were extracted and compared with the 2025 event to identify record-breaking extremes. Rainfall volumes were also estimated and compared with the island’s Average Annual Rainfall (AAR) and volumes from major flood events in 2010 and 2016. The November 2025 event exceeded historical maxima at 14 stations, with estimated return periods frequently surpassing 1000 years. The cumulative rainfall volume from 26–28 November accounted for 15.8% of Sri Lanka’s AAR. Updated IDF curves incorporating the event showed marked upward shifts, with intensities at some locations matching or exceeding projections under high-emission climate scenarios. The results highlight the inadequacy of existing design standards in capturing emerging extremes and the need for urgent updates to Sri Lanka’s national IDF relationships to support climate-resilient flood risk management and infrastructure planning.

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