Tree functional traits and historical wind disturbance correlate with tree performance responses to tropical cyclones globally

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are major drivers of forests structure and dynamics, yet we still lack understanding of which traits enable tree species to persist under these increasingly intense disturbances. We synthesize and analyze data from 47 studies and 427 species across 14 countries and three oceanic basins to examine how tree functional traits and TC disturbance regimes shape post-cyclone tree performance (i.e., shifts in growth, survival, and abundance). Species-level shifts in mortality, growth, and abundance before and after TCs were modeled as functions of species-level wood specific gravity, specific leaf area (SLA), and maximum height, along with maximum sustained wind speed and overall TC frequency. Overall, functional traits weakly explained demographic response to cyclone disturbance (range R2=0.057- 0.132), yet clear patterns emerged. Taller species declined in abundance after TCs, while species with high SLA grew faster post-storm. Mortality decreased nonlinearly with site-level TC frequency but was not predicted significantly by any trait. These findings indicate that tall species are more vulnerable to wind damage due to greater exposure, while acquisitive leaf strategies can take advantage of post-disturbance resource pulses. Under future scenarios of more intense cyclones, shorter and more acquisitive tree species will be more likely to gain a competitive advantage and dominate cyclone-prone forests. Conversely, taller species with smaller SLA in systems with less TC frequency will be most susceptible to subsequent TC impacts.

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