Validation of an ICD-9-CM-Based Monitoring Tool for Regional Trauma Systems: The PaTraME Study in Pavia Province, Italy

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Background/Objectives: Continuous trauma-system monitoring is limited by the lack of scalable, low-cost tools. The Pavia Trauma Management Epidemiology (PaTraME) project uses routinely collected ICD-9-CM discharge data (SDO) and the Trauma Mortality Probability Model (TMPM) to derive Injury Severity Score (XISS) and probability of death (TMPM-POD), creating a cost-free surveillance framework for regional trauma networks. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of all major-trauma admissions (XISS > 15) in Pavia Province from 2014 to 2021. Anonymized SDO records were linked with emergency department flows and mortality registries. XISS and TMPM-POD were computed for each case. Case volumes, severity distributions, hub-centralization, and mortality (in-hospital, 30-day, and 180-day) were analyzed using trend and regression models (p < 0.05). Conclusions: We identified 1959 major-trauma admissions. Volumes increased up to 2019, dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic, and partially recovered in 2021 (p < 0.001). Overall, 61.5% of patients were admitted to hub centers, with an upward trend (p < 0.001). Hubs treated more severe trauma (median XISS 17 vs. 16; TMPM-POD 0.06 vs. 0.05, both p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality remained stable (8.2–11.4%, p = 0.828). TMPM-POD showed strong agreement with observed in-hospital mortality (Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient 0.81), though calibration worsened at higher risk levels. PaTraME confirms TMPM-POD as a valid mortality predictor and demonstrates a reproducible administrative-data framework for trauma surveillance. Rising hub admissions and stable mortality despite increasing complexity suggest improved system performance. Stratification of XISS and TMPM-POD between hub and spoke centers highlights peripheral hospitals managing disproportionately severe cases, informing targeted resource allocation and supporting quality improvement via automated dashboards.

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