Invasion Risk of Cosmos bipinnatus in Xizang: A MaxEnt ‐Based Assessment of Current Distribution and Future Risk Scenarios

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ABSTRACT Under the backdrop of globalization, biological invasions driven by human activities have become a major threat to global biodiversity. As a crucial ecological security barrier in southwestern China, Xizang possesses rich biodiversity and fragile ecosystems. Cosmos bipinnatus , a widely cultivated ornamental invasive plant in Xizang, is spreading very fast and poses a potential threat to Xizang. Clarifying its distribution patterns and response mechanisms under climate change is critical for safeguarding regional ecological security and implementing effective invasion control measures. Through field investigations and computational modeling using optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models with parameter tuning, ArcGIS 10.4, and R programming, we predicted current and future (2050 and 2090) potential invasion risk zones under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). MaxEnt results show: (1) The model's AUC of 0.983 indicates high accuracy. The dominant factors affecting Cosmos bipinnatus distribution are the average temperature of the coldest quarter, Human Impact Index, and upper soil pH. (2) Under future climates, the potential risk area of Cosmos bipinnatus will likely expand northwest. Under SSP1‐2.6, the risk area within Shannan City will shift. Under SSP5‐8.5, Cosmos bipinnatus is more sensitive to climate change, with faster expansion and longer–distance shifts, moving from Gacha County to Namling County. This research provides essential ecological evidence and practical reference for comprehensive prevention and dynamic monitoring of C. bipinnatus invasions in Xizang.

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