Scenario-Based Evaluation of Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting for Solar Energy

Le résumé fourni par la source

Probabilistic time-series forecasting plays a vital role in decisionmaking under uncertainty, especially in applications like solar energy, where forecast reliability directly impacts energy planning and grid stability. While recent models have improved in generating predictive distributions rather than single-point estimates, existing evaluations often focus on average performance and overlook how model quality varies across different real-world scenarios. In solar energy monitoring, for example, the difficulty of forecasting can change significantly due to atmospheric variability, sensor types, and climate conditions. This work addresses the need for scenario-aware evaluation of probabilistic models by benchmarking state-of-the-art forecasting methods using SolarCube-a large-scale solar radiation dataset spanning diverse regions, cloud regimes, and environmental conditions. We define structured "easy" and "hard" cases across four scenarios and examine how different probabilistic model families (e.g., diffusion, VAE, flow-based) capture uncertainty under these conditions. Our goal is to move beyond overall metrics and reveal how model reliability changes across scenarios that are critical for downstream applications.

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