Assessing Vietnam's CO2 Emission Roadmap to 2030 Based on the Revised Power Development Plan VIII Using the PyPSA Model

Résumé fourni par la source

This study evaluated Vietnam's projected CO2 emissions in 2030 under three Renewable Energy (RE) penetration scenarios- low (Case 1), medium (Case 2), and high (Case 3)- using the Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) model, an open-source high-resolution electricity system optimization tool. The modeled CO₂ emissions were 198.84, 191.15, and 183.65 million tons for Case 1, Case 2, and Case 3, respectively. These results were consistent with the PDP8-Rev baseline range while showing that higher RE deployment can reduce emissions by up to 15.19 million tons (about 7.6%) compared to the low-RE scenario, thereby enhancing Vietnam’s alignment with its mid-term climate targets and approaching the conditional JETP pathway. The findings underlined the importance of accelerating RE investment, expanding energy storage, improving system flexibility, and strengthening regulatory mechanisms. Furthermore, this study demonstrated the value of transparent and reproducible modeling tools, such as PyPSA, in supporting evidence-based energy transition planning and policymaking.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.