Secondary graft failure after PT-cy: Modeling a candidate risk assignment biomarker based on lymphocyte reconstitution. Results from the BMT CTN 1801 study.

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Abstract Introduction: Graft Failure (GF) is a rare but devastating outcome of HCT. Primary GF (PGF), defined as a failure of neutrophil recovery by Day+28, is straightforward to diagnose. Diagnosing secondary GF (SGF) is more challenging, with its broad time-range, multiple confounding diagnoses, and lack of predictive biomarkers. In BMT CTN1703/1801, we analyzed patients receiving RIC HCT for heme malignancies with either Tac/MTX (n=159) or PT-Cy (n=165) GVHD prophylaxis. SGF was defined as donor chimerism <5% after initial donor engraftment. With Tac/MTX, there were 3 PGF and 1 SGF diagnoses. With PT-Cy, there were 4 PGF and 6 SGF. Median SGF diagnosis was Day +64 (range: Day+28-215). There were too few Tac/MTX patients to analyze SGF, but sufficient events with PT-Cy. To identify PT-Cy SGF predictors, we leveraged lymphocyte, T, B, and NK cell reconstitution analysis. In SGF we found an early, profound deficit in the reconstitution of all major lymphocyte populations, including total lymphocytes, T, B, and NK cells, as early as Day+28. This enabled the modeling of a SGF risk classifier based on the Absolute Lymphocyte Count (ALC). Methods: Clinical ALC measurements were performed on all SGF patients (n=6) and on non-GF controls with ALCs available (146 of 155 non-GF patients). Flow cytometry was performed on all PT-Cy SGF patients (n = 6) and from a subset of non-GF controls (n = 18: controls were chosen as patients without relapse or severe GVHD, to reduce confounders introduced by immunologic interventions, and for whom all samples, including from the graft infusion, were available). T, B, and NK counts, as well as T cell subsets, were compared (using Welch's T test) on Days 7, 14, 21, 28, 42, 63, 98, 180, 270, 365, 730, with SGF patients censored on the day of GF diagnosis. To interrogate the optimal ALC cutoff, the cumulative incidence of SGF was computed at Days +28 and +42, with death without GF as a competing risk. Results: We have previously demonstrated that, compared to Tac/MTX, PT-Cy patients exhibited an early decrease in reconstitution of all T cell populations (with normal NK and B cell reconstitution). Here we focused specifically on PT-Cy patients with or without SGF. Graft CD34 counts/kg were not different between SGF patients and non-GF patients (mean CD34/kg = 1.38 x10e6 (SGF) vs 0.67 x10e6 (non-GF, p = 0.61) However, even amidst the overarching early suppression in T cell reconstitution with PT-Cy, SGF patients could be easily distinguished from the larger PT-Cy cohort, based on more profound deficits in ALC, T, B and NK cells reconstitution, measured using 2 strategies: (1) SGF patients demonstrated significant early (Day +28) quantitative defects in the reconstitution of the ALC (mean +/- SEM 262+/-32 cells/µL (non-GF) vs 60 +/- 25 (SGF, p<0.0001), CD4 T cells (62 +/- 12 cells/µL vs 19+/-15, p=0.048), CD8 T cells (15 +/-3 cells/µL vs 3.5 +/-1 p=0.0009), all CD8 T cell subpopulations, as well as NK cells (116+/-31 cells/µL vs 2.9+/-1.4 cells/µL, p= 0.002) and B cells (3.5 +/-1.4 cells/µL vs 0.16+/-0.07 p =0.03). (2) In SGF, there was a significant deficit in the rate of rise of all major lymphocyte populations between Days 28-42-60 vs non-GF, including CD4 T cells (p<0.0001), CD8 T cells (p = 0.0002), B cells (p<0.0001), and NK cells (p =0.048). These discoveries suggested that a classifier could be identified to risk-stratify patients for SGF. We explored an ALC cutpoint, amenable to standard clinical lab analysis. A statistically significant threshold was identified at both Days+28 and +42, with Day+42 being most predictive: A threshold of 120 cells/µL was identified as optimal, with landmark analysis documenting a SGF rate of 34.7% below the cutpoint, and SGF of 1% above it (HR = 45.9, 95% CI 5.7 - 366). Conclusions: Despite the small number of events, PT-Cy patients with SGF demonstrated a distinctive reconstitution trajectory that encompassed an early, substantial, and sustained deficit in all lymphocyte counts, as well as a lack of their longitudinal expansion. This enabled the discovery of a candidate ALC biomarker cutpoint at Day+42 that could distinguish patients who were more likely to develop SGF. If confirmed, these data could generate a predictive biomarker for SGF, which would enable the design of trials evaluating early interventions (e.g. CD34+ boosts, DLI, modification of immunosuppression) to improve outcomes for these patients.

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