Projecting the future burden of OSA in EU5 countries accounting for body mass index

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Rationale: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a sleep disorder associated with intermittent hypoxia, sleep fragmentation, and daytime impairment. In Europe, aging populations and rising obesity rates contribute to the increasing burden of OSA. With projected increases in BMI and an aging demographic structure, OSA prevalence is expected to rise. We aimed to project the future burden of OSA in the EU-5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) through 2050, accounting for regional demographic shifts and BMI trends. Methods: An open-cohort Markov model was developed to simulate population dynamics from 2019 to 2050 across age, sex, and BMI categories. OSA prevalence was calibrated within these subgroups, and severity distributions were modeled based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Results: Among adults aged 30–69 in the EU-5, OSA prevalence (AHI ≥ 5) is projected to increase from 33.1% (51.3 million (M) cases) in 2020 to 52.3% (76.6M cases) by 2050. Country-specific relative increases include France (+68.3%), Germany (+28.5%), Italy (+64.9%), Spain (+31.0%), and the United Kingdom (+66.1%). By 2050, OSA prevalence is estimated to reach 55.7% in males and 48.9% in females (Table). Conclusion: We projected a significant rise in OSA prevalence across the EU-5 due to increasing BMI and an aging population. These findings underscore the need for proactive public health strategies to identify and manage the growing burden of OSA. erj;66/suppl_69/OA4354/F1 F1 F1

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