Risk Determinants of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Severe Obesity and Prediction Model for Diabetes Remission after Bariatric Metabolic Surgery

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BACKGRUOUND: Bariatric metabolic surgery (BMS) has been established as an effective intervention for obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, systematic research addressing the onset of diabetes and post-surgical remission in severely obese populations remains scarce. This study aims to identify risk factors for T2DM in populations with severe obesity undergoing BMS and develop and validate a prediction model for the primary outcome of diabetes remission (DR) 1 year after BMS. This research provides a precise tool for managing T2DM in populations with severe obesity. METHODS: This research utilizes the China Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database, retrospectively analyzing 3,670 severely obese populations who underwent BMS between January 2014 and January 2024. Differential analysis identified risk factors for T2DM onset, while univariate and multivariate regression analyses identified independent risk factors for DR post-surgery. A prediction model for DR was developed and internally validated. RESULTS: Factors associated with T2DM onset in severely obese populations included family history of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, and fasting plasma glucose. Independent factors influencing DR postsurgery included diabetes duration, surgical method, HbA1c, and insulin requirement. Subsequent model validation confirmed stable performance metrics (area under the curve values training, 0.71; validation, 0.72). CONCLUSION: This study identifies risk factors for T2DM onset and a prediction model for DR following BMS in the Chinese severely obese population. It provides a more precise risk assessment tool for patients with severe obesity and T2DM, and lays the groundwork for future multicenter studies and international collaborations.

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