Prediction markets: An emerging form of gambling?

Le résumé fourni par la source

We write to direct the readership to a potential new form of gambling: prediction markets.Prediction markets offer binary yes/no contracts whose prices reflect the market's estimate that a real-world event will occur.For example, a 'Candidate X to win the election' contract might be priced at $0.60, reflecting a market view of a 60% chance of victory [1].Purchasing one contract pays $1 if Candidate X wins and $0 otherwise.These commonly focus on outcomes of political and sporting events.Prediction markets in the United States are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [2], meaning they are often regulated as investments rather than as gambling products [3].This means typical state-enforced harm-minimisation measures common in gambling regulation, such as state self-exclusion registers, advertising restrictions and in-product safer-gambling tools, generally do not apply [4].However, functionally, these products resemble gambling.Users stake money on uncertain real-world outcomes that resolve in either a full payout or nothing, depending on the outcome.Short event cycles permit repeated re-entry and loss chasing.Risk is heightened by 24/7 mobile access, push notifications, easy deposits and constant availability.

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