Latecomer-driven technological spillovers: evidence from China and the G7 countries

Le résumé fourni par la source

This study investigates whether latecomer economies can drive technological spillovers. Utilizing the TVP-VAR-DY model, GSADF test, and a rolling causality test, the paper analyses the technology spillover effects between China and the G7 nations. The findings are threefold. First, a moderate-intensity Total Factor Productivity (TFP) spillover exists between China and the G7. China has transformed from a ‘technology recipient’ to the largest net contributor of global TFP spillovers, with its dynamic net spillover index remaining positive since the early 21st century. Second, the GSADF test identifies two significant leaps in China’s TFP (1983–1989 and 1993–2019), driven by the co-evolution of institutional innovation and technological progress. Third, the rolling-window causality test reveals that China’s TFP spillovers to the G7 exhibit significant time-varying features. The causal relationships are concentrated in critical phases of China’s institutional reforms – such as its market economy transition and WTO accession – providing direct causal evidence of its technological spillovers. This research offers new empirical evidence on how latecomer economies can achieve TFP catch-up and reshape global technology spillover patterns through the synergy of institutional and technological innovation.

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