Technical overview and architecture of the FastNet Machine Learning weather prediction model, version 1.0

Résumé fourni par la source

We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan Turing Institute and the Met Office. FastNet uses an encode-process-decode structure to produce deterministic global weather predictions out to 10 days. The architecture is independent of spatial resolution and we have trained models at 1$^{\circ}$ and 0.25$^{\circ}$ resolution, with a six hour time step. FastNet uses a multi-level mesh in the processor, which is able to capture both short-range and long-range patterns in the spatial structure of the atmosphere. The model is pre-trained on ECMWF's ERA5 reanalysis data and then fine-tuned on additional autoregressive rollout steps, which improves accuracy over longer time horizons. We evaluate the model performance at 1.5$^{\circ}$ resolution using 2022 as a hold-out year and compare with the Met Office Global Model, finding that FastNet surpasses the skill of the current Met Office Global Model NWP system using a variety of evaluation metrics on a number of atmospheric variables. Our results show that both our 1$^{\circ}$ and 0.25$^{\circ}$ FastNet models outperform the current Global Model and produce results with predictive skill approaching those of other data-driven models trained on 0.25$^{\circ}$ ERA5.

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