Research on Hybrid Optimization Prediction Models for Photovoltaic Power Generation Under Extreme Climate Conditions

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With the vigorous development of contemporary clean energy, the participation rate of photovoltaic (PV) power generation in the whole power system is increasing day by day, and accurate PV power prediction technology is crucial for the optimal scheduling of the power system. However, the frequent occurrence of extreme climate in recent years has caused greater disturbance to PV power generation, which greatly increases the degree of difficulty in accurately predicting PV power generation and thus affects the security, economy, reliability and stability of grid system operation. In order to predict PV power under extreme climatic conditions, we firstly elaborate the PV power prediction methods and their respective advantages and disadvantages for sand, dust, rainstorm and snowfall in existing studies, and on this basis, we propose the Gray Wolf Optimization for Short-Term Forecasting Models of the Long and Short-Term Memory Model based on K-Means clustering, which ensures the accuracy of PV power prediction under extreme climatic conditions. power prediction accuracy under extreme climate conditions. Firstly, the K-means clustering algorithm is utilized to perform weather typing, which is divided into four weather categories, namely, dusty weather, heavy rain, heavy snow and normal weather. Then, for the weather typing results, the prediction effects of the Gray Wolf Optimization Long Short-Term Memory Network (GWO-LSTM) Model, Random Forest (RF) Model, Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network (BP) Model, and Long and Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) Model are compared, respectively. The prediction results indicate that GWO-LSTM achieves the highest forecasting accuracy, with a mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.6235 across all four weather scenarios. Its prediction accuracy reaches approximately 95%, providing effective data support for the safe and stable operation of new power systems featuring high proportions of grid-connected photovoltaic generation.

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