How to best evaluate and communicate the value of severe weather warnings?

Résumé fourni par la source

Abstract. The value of a weather forecast and a warning is the benefit realized by decision makers through the use of the product. It is important to know what determines how valuable a warning is from a user's point of view. Further, it is unclear whether users and providers have the same understanding of the value of a warning. To address the question of how to best evaluate and communicate the value of weather warnings a survey was designed, conducted and analysed. The survey includes questions with respect to the relevance of various aspects of a warning, the potential benefit of providing information on warning quality, the type of potentially useful information, and suitable ways of providing such information. 66 experts in the field of weather warnings and/or their communication responded to the survey in the frame of scientific conference in 2024. Additionally, a small sample of the general public responded to a selected excerpt of the original survey during the German national weather service's open house. Apart from the core information of warnings, i.e. time, place and severity of the hazard, impact information, and behavioural advice are seen to add value to a warning. Being able to understand the information in the warning is seen as important for the majority of the respondents in the study. Information on the accuracy in timing, location and severity of an event are rated as useful, either to increase trust in warnings or for decision making. Dependent on which user groups are asked, different formats are most suited for warning quality communication. The experts stated that they have more practical experience regarding the content of warning quality information and its usefulness compared to the suitability of different formats. This suggest that there is still a need for testing various formats for best communicating warning quality information to different user groups.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.