Global, regional and national burden of lip and oral cavity cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036

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OBJECTIVE: To explore the global trends in the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of lip and oral cavity cancer from 1990 to 2021, analyze regional, age and gender differences in lip and oral cavity cancer across the world, and predict future trends. METHODS: The data were all from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, calculating the global incidence, mortality and DALY rates of lip and oral cavity cancer per 100,000 population. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was conducted. The fitting curves of the disease burden indicators and the socio-demographic index (SDI) were analyzed. RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of lip and oral cavity cancer in 2021 were 421,577 (95% UI, 389,878.79-449,782.06), number of deaths was 208,379 (95% UI, 191,287.97-224,162.08) and number of DALY was 5,874,070 (95% UI, 5,326,986.06-6,347,557.28). From 1990 to 2021, the incidence increased by 63.68%, the mortality rate increased by 44.6%, and the DALY rate increased by 35.21%. Among the five SDI regions, the incidence, mortality, and DALY rate in middle SDI regions have seen the largest increases, with EAPC of 2.83% (95% CI, 2.69-2.97), 1.99% (95% CI, 1.9-2.07), and 1. 71% (95%CI, 1.64-1.78). From the perspective of 21 regions, the incidence of lip and oral cavity cancer was highest in Australasia in 2021 (11.21 per 100,000; 95%UI, 9.97-12.4). At the national level, Palau has the highest incidence, mortality, and DALY rate globally (32.32 per 100,000; 95%UI, 24.64-41.33, 17.62 per 100,000; 95%UI, 13.37-22.83, 558.99 per 100,000; 95%UI, 420.48-735.74). BAPC forecasts a global rise in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for this cancer in the coming years. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2021, global rates of lip and oral cavity cancer incidence, mortality, and DALY rates increased significantly, with particularly notable rises in low-middle and middle SDI regions. This highlights the urgency of taking targeted intervention measures.

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