Study on the evolution of port and waterway traffic safety risks and network vulnerability

Le résumé fourni par la source

To enhance the safety of navigation in port and waterway areas, this study employs complex network theory combined with a dynamic sensitivity model to systematically identify key risk factors involved in accident propagation. Based on 257 representative accident cases, a risk evolution network for port and waterway traffic safety is constructed. Topological analysis reveals that the network exhibits small-world and scale-free properties, characterized by short risk propagation paths, strong local clustering, and high dependence on a few critical nodes. Node failure simulations implemented in Python evaluate the network’s vulnerability under different perturbation mechanisms. A dynamic sensitivity model quantifies actual node vulnerabilities by combining connectivity and efficiency losses caused by simulated failures. Results indicate that risks in port and waterway areas spread rapidly and concentrate heavily, with the failure of a few critical factors likely to trigger systemic maritime accidents. Communication barriers, misjudgment, rule violations, and complex tidal environments play dominant roles in accident propagation. The top 12 factors account for 73.8% of cumulative risk contribution, confirming the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed identification method. The findings provide a systematic approach and practical reference for effective risk management in port and waterway navigation safety.

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