Modeling the Dynamics and Resilience of Decentralized User to User Transactions

Le résumé fourni par la source

This research provides a novel analysis of the interaction and stability of the loosely coupled User-to-User (U2U) transaction networks associated with Dark Web Marketplaces (DWMs). Therefore, using a dataset of over 31 million Bitcoin transactions involving more than 16 million entities linked to 40 major DWMs, we observe the ubiquity of U2U trading. However, as shown in this paper, the population of casual U2U trading pairs is complemented with a sub-population of highly active and persistent trading pairs with very different characteristics. Some of these stable U2U pairs are responsible for a significantly higher number of transactions than others, trading at a rate 5X higher than the rest of the users, and are likely to spend more time in the DWM ecosystem. In addition, they indicate that DWM platforms themselves seem to contribute to the creation of a large number of these long-lasting U2U connections, as pairs tend to emerge when users are already engaged in trading on the same marketplace. Other common pathways are predating any DWM activity, arising from a lack of trust in a platform, or forming in the wake of a marketplace’s collapse. Nevertheless, the stable U2U networks are rather autonomous and quite resistant compared to the rather vulnerable centralized DWM structures. Their trading volumes are significantly high and remain relatively stable and only slightly erode after DWMs shut down, thus quickly replacing the significant collapse of non-stable U2U trading. This resiliency applies even to systemic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic that greatly affected the conventional modes of operation in DWM.

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