Bottleneck congestion and endogenously determined departure times under bounded rationality

Le résumé fourni par la source

This study examines departure time decisions in Vickrey's bottleneck model by incorporating bounded rationality through a quantal response equilibrium (QRE) framework. Traditional bottleneck models assume perfect rationality and may fail to capture real-world commuter behaviour. To address this limitation, a discrete version of the bottleneck model was developed and experimentally tested to compare the predictive performance of QRE and symmetric mixed-strategy equilibrium (SMSE). In a controlled laboratory setting with two conditions differing in the shadow price of travel time, departure time choices initially deviated from SMSE predictions, particularly under a low shadow price, but gradually converged toward them over repeated rounds. QRE provided a closer fit to observed departure time distributions than SMSE, especially in the low shadow price condition. Based on two out-of-sample validation measures, QRE demonstrated superior predictive performance, highligting the value of incorporating bounded rationality into bottleneck congestion models.

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