Shots During One-Goal Leads and Match Outcomes in the English Premier League

Le résumé fourni par la source

This observational retrospective study aimed to examine the association between team behaviour during periods of one-goal leads and subsequent match outcomes while accounting for team level and match location. All matches (n = 380) of the English Premier League (EPL) during the season 2023/24 were analyzed. Team behaviour was evaluated by shots every 10 min during a one-goal lead (SP10MDOGL), a time-normalized indicator of offensive activity that reflects a team’s strategic orientation while protecting a narrow lead. Mixed effects multinomial logistic regression was used to establish the association between SP10MDOGL and the match outcome. Results indicated that increased SP10MDOGL was strongly associated with a higher likelihood of both drawing (Odds ratio (OR) = 2.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29–4.33; Cohen’s d (d) = 0.47) and winning (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.93–5.92; d = 0.67) compared to losing. This association remained consistent across high-, intermediate-, and low-level teams regardless of whether they played at home or away. These findings suggest that maintaining an offensive approach through an increased number of shots during a one-goal lead is associated with a higher likelihood of securing positive match outcomes within the elite-level football context, such as the EPL. Soccer coaches should consider implementing proactive offensive strategies when protecting a narrow lead, regardless of their team level and match location.

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