Data-driven fog forecasting for the Indo-Gangetic Plains

Résumé fourni par la source

Fog is a socio-natural hazard common during winter in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, disrupting transportation, health, and agriculture.The Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur fog project addresses the challenge of fog forecasting by using data science with in situ and satellite observations.A novel fog index quantifies fog duration and intensity, supporting medium-term forecasting, while machine learning models achieve 0.9 accuracy for six-hour visibility forecasts.An uncertainty-aware Bayesian neural network using INSAT-3D data improves fog detection performance compared to the operational INSAT fog product, increasing the probability of detection from 0.13 to 0.68.The real-time results are publicly shared at https://fog.iitk.ac.in/.

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