Understanding organ donation refusal in the next of kin: a fifteen-year retrospective study in ten thousand potential donors

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INTRODUCTION: Refusal of organ donation is influenced by a range of interconnected factors spanning donor characteristics, family dynamics, and intensive care unit (ICU) practices. This study explores the impact of donor or centre-related variables on organ donation refusal rates in Italian ICUs, among potential donors without expressed will. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 12,930 potential donors registered in the North Italian Transplant Program registry from 01/01/2010 to 31/03/2025. A linear mixed-effects model was applied to account for donor characteristics (age, timing and cause of death, geographic origin) and ICU-level variability with refusal of organ donation. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis geographic origin was an independent predictor of refusal - particularly for donors from North Africa and Middle East (OR 9.59, IQR 6.25 - 14.72; p-value < 0.001), Asia (OR 7.76, IQR 5.69-10.57; p-value < 0.001), Africa (OR 6.81, IQR 4.44 - 10.45; p-value < 0.001) and eastern European (OR 2.65, IQR 2.17 - 3.23; p-value < 0.001). Also, time from event to death over 48 h was associated with higher refusal rate (OR 3.37, IQR 2.52 - 4.50, p-value < 0.001). In contrast, traumatic brain injury (OR 0.85, IQR 0.74 - 0.98; p-value 0.023) was protective. Finally, inter-ICU variability had a significant impact on refusal rates, as indicated by a Median Odds Ratio of 1.38. However, the multivariate model demonstrated weak predictive ability for organ donation refusal (AUC = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies several factors independently associated with organ donation refusal. However, the overall predictive ability based on available variables remains limited. To enable individualized interventions and effectively reduce refusal rates, more comprehensive and prospective data collection is warranted.

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