Age-standardised trends in Incidence Rates of Noncommunicable diseases among Adults Aged 30 to 79 in Senegal from 2000 to 2019

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ABSTRACT Introduction Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a significant global health burden in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, most SSA countries such as Senegal lack reliable data despite the need for surveillance of NCD trends to inform targeted preventive strategies. Methods We used publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (World Health Organization’s Health Inequality Data Repository). We used age-standardised regression to analyze the trends of NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and chronic kidney diseases) incidence among adults in Senegal. Statistical analysis was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 5.3.0.0 and data visualization was performed using R, version 4.4.0 Results NCD incidence rates in females were consistently higher than in males. Rates in females increased from 190,857 to 194,620 cases per 100,000 population between 2000 and 2019 (p-value 0.007) as compared to 160,623 to 163,800 cases per 100,000 population in males (p-value 0.002). Incidence rates were higher in females for neoplasm (p-value 0.03), chronic respiratory diseases (p-value 0.07), and diabetes and chronic kidney diseases (p-value 0.04), while cardiovascular disease incidence was higher in males (p-value 0.02). Conclusion There was a significant increase in age-standardized NCD incidence among adults in Senegal. When considering subtypes, all had increased incidence rates, except cardiovascular diseases which showed a significant decrease over time. A national NCD registry and targeted risk factor prevention programs are crucial to help tackle the NCD burden in Senegal. KEY MESSAGES What is already known? Senegal is experiencing a shift towards a higher burden of NCD, with a probability of dying from NCD as high as 20% [95% CI: 11.9-28.8%] in 2019 according to WHO. Unfortunately, reliable epidemiological data and surveillance systems are lacking to inform appropriate prevention and resource allocation strategies. What does this study add? Overall, we observed a significant increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence of NCD during the study period, 2000-2019. There were differences between NCD subtypes, with neoplasm rates remaining constant throughout the study period while diabetes, chronic kidney disease and chronic respiratory disease were increasing. Incidence rates were consistently higher in females compared to males, especially for chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease. What do the new findings imply? The overall non-significant increasing trend of NCD incidence rates in Senegal calls for the critical need to invest in robust surveillance systems such as NCD national registry and targeted risk factors prevention programs to tackle this growing burden. Discrepancies in the trends of some NCD subtypes may reflect reporting bias, which needs to be addressed by well-designed longitudinal cohort studies.

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