Predictors of Mortality in Surgical Patients Admitted to a Tertiary Intensive Care Unit

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Background: Intensive Care Units (ICUs) provide critical support for patients after major surgery or acute abdominal conditions. Despite medical advances, mortality remains high in surgical ICU patients. This study aimed to identify clinical and biochemical predictors of mortality in surgical patients admitted to a tertiary ICU. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case–control study on 231 adult general surgery patients admitted to a tertiary anesthesia ICU between January 2018 and December 2023. Patients under 18 years or who underwent solid organ transplantation were excluded. Data collected included demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters such as the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Hemoglobin-Albumin-Lymphocyte-Platelet (HALP) score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin ratio. Patients were divided into mortality and survival groups, with subgroup analyses performed for malignancy, sepsis, and trauma. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Cox regression analyses were used to identify mortality predictors. Results: The ICU mortality rate was 64.9%. Significant predictors included age ≥ 58 years (odds ratio [OR] 4.56), body mass index (BMI) > 30 kg/m2 (OR 7.62), mean arterial pressure < 70 mmHg (OR 1.66), serum albumin < 21.3 g/L (OR 1.5), APACHE II > 18.5 (OR 2.42), and SOFA > 9.5 (OR 2.68). Mortality was also associated with lower GCS scores, prolonged mechanical ventilation, and inotropic support. The CRP/albumin ratio was significantly elevated in the mortality group (p = 0.024). Other inflammatory markers showed no significant differences. Predictive factors varied among subgroups. Conclusions: Older age, obesity, hypotension, hypoalbuminemia, and high severity scores independently predict mortality in surgical ICU patients. Early risk identification may enhance management and improve outcomes in this population.

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