Identifying the best indicator for forecasting the temperature-humidity index for dairy cattle and its historical pattern (1940 – 2024) in North-Central Mexico

Le résumé fourni par la source

The most commonly used indicator to identify times of increased risk of heat stress for dairy cows is THI, which measures the heat load that cattle may suffer from air temperature ( ∘ C) and relative humidity (RH). The present study employed two working hypotheses: firstly, that measuring cumulative hours of exposure to THI results in a better prognosis for heat stress than using maximum THI values; and secondly, that under high THI conditions, THI has been increasing in the Comarca Lagunera. The present study employed a Big Data Predictive Analytics approach, utilising models estimated from 85 years of daily, hourly observations to estimate calibrated statistical models and forecast trends. The THI was organised in three categories: accumulated daily hours (HSacc), the daily average or mean of THI (THImean), and the daily maximum THI (THImax). The measurement of these variables was conducted at four levels of THI: more than 67, 69–71, 72–76 and 77 or more. For HSacc, the optimal model was identified as Prophet; for THImean and THImax, GLMNET was found to be the most suitable model, with positive slopes observed across almost all levels. The models predict and increment in the next 10 years of 0.14, 0.20 and 0.32 hours in the daily values of HSacc, THImean and THImax, respectively. It is evident that the findings of this study will play a pivotal role in the identification, implementation and assessment of strategies that have the potential to mitigate the adverse effects of heat stress in the region.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.