Risk assessment of urban gas pipeline networks considering regional resilience using a DOOBN framework

Le résumé fourni par la source

• Regional resilience is integrated into the safety assessment framework. • A DOOBN-based framework is proposed for UGPN safety evaluation. • Regional resilience effects on UGPN accident probability and consequences are studied. • Z-number-based SAM and AHP reduce data uncertainty. The growing demand of natural gas requires larger urban gas pipeline networks (UGPN), which has heightened concerns over their failure risks. However, urban gas pipelines are buried underground, cover wide areas, are difficult to inspect, and involve high risks. This study proposed a novel risk assessment framework based on a Dynamic Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN), which embeds the concept of regional resilience. By integrating regional resilience with risk factors such as corrosion, pipeline defects, third-party interference, and natural hazards, the framework can evaluate the probabilistic safety of pipeline systems, the speed and extent of recovery, and the time-dependent consequences of accidents under the influence of regional resilience. The novelty of this framework lies in considering the temporal variation of regional resilience indicators of the UGPN to assess its reliability. It also models the subsystems and their interactions by constructing a modular Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) structure. To obtain the prior probabilities of basic events of the network, the combination of historical data with expert elicitation (using Z-numbers) was employed. In addition, a weighted sum method was presented to derive conditional probability tables. Finally, a case study was conducted on a UGPN located in a western city of China. The results show that the introduction of regional resilience not only allows for accurate assessment of failure probability and consequences, but also helps identify key factors contributing to pipeline failure from both the pipeline system and regional resilience aspects. This enables the prioritization of mitigation strategies tailored to regional vulnerabilities.

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