Bridging the clinical gap: Confidence informed IDH prediction in brain gliomas using MRI and deep learning

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Background: The isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation status is a key molecular marker in diagnosing and treating brain tumors. Currently, it is determined via invasive tissue biopsy. Recent advances in deep learning (DL) have offered promising non-invasive alternatives for determining IDH status. However, their clinical translation is hindered by a significant gap between DL predictions and their clinical applicability. The limited transparency of many DL-networks and inadequate evaluation metrics hinders trust and adoption, as clinicians require clear and validated insights for determining IDH status. These challenges highlight the need for robust validation and measures of predictive reliability to make DL-predictions clinically actionable. Methods: We developed a unique approach for non-invasive prediction of IDH status using MRI. We combine a voxel-wise-segmentation network(MC-net) with Bayesian logistic regression (BLR) to provide an IDH status and estimate confidence scores. We utilized a comprehensive dataset of 2,481 glioma cases from eight institutions. Results: Our framework(MC-net + BLR) demonstrated robust performance achieving 96.4% and 95.1% classification accuracies on diverse databases, with an AUC of 0.98. The BLR was implemented exclusively on held-out test data, ensuring that the derived confidence scores are independent of the training or validation phases. The derived confidence scores showed a low Brier score of 0.0125, highlighting its superior calibration and uncertainty quantification. Conclusion: The developed framework provides an IDH status and a confidence score, offering clinicians an additional layer of assurance in prediction reliability. It bridges the gap between high-performing DL models and their clinical applicability by addressing the challenges in prediction reliability. Our framework is a significant advancement in non-invasive determination of IDH-status and confidence-informed therapeutic decision-making in neuro-oncology.

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