Climatic Variables as Drivers of Pterocarpus erinaceus Poir. (Fabaceae): Distribution and the Implications of Climate Change

Résumé fourni par la source

Pterocarpus erinaceus, an ecologically and economically significant tree native to the Sahelian region of West Africa, is currently threatened by overexploitation, habitat degradation, and climate change. This study evaluates the influence of key climatic variables on its present distribution and projects potential range shifts under mid-21st-century climate scenarios across Africa. Utilizing an ensemble modeling approach that integrates various algorithms and incorporates 19 Bioclimatic and 18 Envirem variables, the analysis identified distinct habitat suitability patterns, with significant high-suitability areas concentrated in West Africa. Projections for 2050 under low- and moderate-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) suggest a reduction in climatically unsuitable areas and a potential expansion of suitable habitats, implying a degree of resilience to projected mid-21st century climatic changes. Key climatic factors constraining the species’ distribution were identified as the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter and the Climatic Moisture Index, with other variables likely influencing critical biological processes such as seed germination and growth. Notably, among the six most influential variables shaping the species’ distribution, four are precipitation-related and two pertain to temperature. The results offer valuable insights into the climatic drivers of P. erinaceus distribution and underscore the species’ eco-physiological dependencies on specific temperature and moisture regimes. These projected distributional changes emphasize the urgency of implementing proactive conservation measures to mitigate the combined threats of climate change and ongoing anthropogenic pressures on this endangered species.

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