A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour

Le résumé fourni par la source

Background Fires in temperate dry heaths burn dead and live fuels and are increasing in frequency. Models that describe these fuels and their contribution to fire behaviour is becoming of greater importance. Aims We sought to identify variations in fuel moisture and flammability in dry heath fuel types throughout the year and assess the strength of phenological shifts to influence predicted fire behaviour. Methods Six plant species from three dry heaths in the United Kingdom (UK) were collected throughout the year, their moisture content and effective heat of combustion measured. Data were used to parameterise a dynamic fuel model and undertake a sensitivity analysis using BehavePlus. Key results Phenological changes in live fuel moisture had the greatest effect on predicted fire behaviour where variations between late winter–early spring and late spring–summer, led to a four-fold difference in fire rate of spread. Dead fuel moisture had an effect in the summer months but was dampened significantly by phenologically high live fuel moisture content. Conclusions Phenological drivers of live fuel moisture in temperate shrubland fuels must be included in models that predict fire behaviour. Implications Using the data presented, models such as BehavePlus can be adapted to include this variability to predict fire behaviour in temperate heathland ecosystems.

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