Group-Based Trajectory Model to Assess Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy Adherence Pattern in HR-Positive Breast Cancer: Results from Rio Grande Valley Patients

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Background/Objectives: Adherence to oral endocrine therapy (OET) is essential to reduce recurrence but is predominantly lower among underserved patients, leading to worse health outcomes. We aimed to depict longitudinal patterns of OET adherence using group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) and identify predictors associated with each adherence trajectory. Methods: A single-center, retrospective study was conducted to analyze data from women 18 years or older with metastatic breast cancer who initiated with an OET and were treated from January to December 2022. Adherence was measured using a proportion of days covered (PDC > 80%) for 12 months. Binary monthly indicator of PDC was incorporated into GBTM. Four models were generated by changing the number of groups from 2 to 5, using a 2nd-order polynomial function of time. A multinomial logistic regression model was run to evaluate the predictors of non-adherence trajectories, and “adherence” was considered the reference group. Results: A total of 346 women had a (mean age of 60) years; 93% were Hispanic or of Mexican origin; 90% were taking aromatase inhibitors (AIs), with an endocrine therapy of 1.05 years. Three trajectories of adherence to GBTM were identified: a gradual decline in adherence (n = 88, 25.5%), improving suboptimal adherence (n = 106, 30.6%), and adherent (n = 152, 43.9%). Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that significant predictors are diabetes (odds ratio (OR), 2.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.57–5.57) and fewer years of therapy (OR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.57–5.57). Suboptimal adherence among RGV patients receiving OET, with approximately 56% following a non-adherent trajectory. Conclusions: Suboptimal adherence among RGV patients receiving OET, with approximately 56% following a non-adherent trajectory. Significant predictors should be considered when designing targeted interventions.

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