Multiannual environmental forcing shapes breeding phenology and success in a subantarctic seabird

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Abstract Climate-driven phenological mismatches threaten avian reproduction by disrupting food availability during critical breeding stages. In marine ecosystems, time lags between environmental changes and their effects on food webs are challenging to model, yet they can have a profound impact on top-predator reproduction. We disentangle how oceanic and climatic variability influence the breeding phenology and success of a keystone seabird of the Southern Ocean drawing on 24 years of data from 17,000 marked king penguins. We document an exceptional 19-day advancement in breeding phenology, alongside increased breeding success (44% in 2000, 62% in 2023). A sliding-window analysis reveals that sea temperature and primary production in key foraging zones predict both phenology and breeding success, with lags ranging from several weeks to two years. While king penguins appear to be keeping pace with current changes, their dependence on multi-year environmental conditions underscores the vulnerability of top predators to unpredictable, fast-changing, and more frequent extreme conditions.

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