Predicting the risk of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients (PROVE-IT): a model development and validation study

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BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a serious complication of critical illness. The persistently high rates of VTE may be the result of thromboprophylaxis failure in critically ill patients at particularly high risk of VTE. A prognostic model may facilitate patient-specific interventions, ultimately lowering the incidence of VTE in critically ill patients. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for VTE in critically ill patients: Predicting the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Critically Ill Patients model. METHODS: ), and clinical utility (decision curve analysis [DCA]). RESULTS: = 0.154). DCA suggested that the model may have clinical benefit over a range of risk thresholds (1.1%-4.7%), although not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: We developed and externally validated a prognostic model for in-hospital VTE in critically ill patients. Our model was well-calibrated upon external validation, although the discrimination was merely acceptable. Additionally, the model's clinical utility, assessed by DCA, is unclear, which precludes its recommendation for clinical implementation at this stage.

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