Determinants of Tropical Hardwood Lumber Exports to the ITTO Market: Econometric Evidence and Strategic Pathways for Sustainable Development in Producing Regions

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This study examines the structural and cyclical determinants of tropical hardwood sawnwood exports among member countries of the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), using a dynamic econometric panel approach covering the period 1995–2022. By applying a Common Correlated Effects–Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CCE-ARDL) model—robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity—the analysis explores the interplay of macroeconomic, demographic, and sector-specific variables. Three key findings emerge: (i) a 1% increase in domestic sawnwood production leads to a 0.38% rise in long-run exports (p < 0.01), while short-run effects remain insignificant due to supply chain rigidities; (ii) strong bidirectional causality between imports and exports suggests increasing vertical integration, with elasticities of 0.33 (short term) and 0.37 (long term); (iii) population size significantly predicts export capacity (β = 1.29; p < 0.01), underscoring the structural importance of demographic scale effects. Granger causality tests confirm the persistence of path dependencies linked to historical trade structures, and a typology reveals four categories of exporters—from raw-material-dependent (e.g., Gabon) to high value-added re-exporters (e.g., Vietnam). The study highlights enduring asymmetries in tropical timber value chains: African producers supply around 15% of global tropical timber but capture no more than 20% of the final product value. Policy implications include industrial upgrading through forestry-based Special Economic Zones with tax incentives tied to processing depth, blockchain-enabled traceability to reduce illegality (notably 30% of Cameroon’s exports), and South-South cartelization to counterbalance buyer power—particularly from China, which controls over 60% of concessions in Central Africa. The paper ultimately proposes a Fair and Digital Tropical Timber Trade Model, integrating green industrialization, mirrored environmental clauses in trade agreements, and payment for ecosystem services (PES), as a pathway to reconciling economic sovereignty with long-term sustainability.

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