Analysis and prediction of spatiotemporal carbon storage changes in the Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province based on PLUS and InVEST model

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Rapid urbanization and land-use change (LUCC) significantly impact terrestrial carbon storage, creating an urgent need to assess and mitigate these effects for sustainable development. This study employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) coupling model to analyze carbon storage dynamics (2000-2020) and project future trends (2030) in Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu province, a highly urbanized region. It aims to assess and predict spatiotemporal carbon storage changes in the Taihu Lake Basin of Jiangsu Province.thereby providing a scientific basis for regional low-carbon land-use planning under China’s "dual carbon" goals. Key findings include: (1) Historical Trends (2000-2020): Cropland decreased by 266,757 ha (15.1%), while built-up land expanded by 249,166 ha (14.13%), driven by urbanization; Net carbon storage loss reached 3.26 × 10⁶ t (12.57% decline), concentrated in 2000-2010 (-2.86 × 10⁶ t). Post-2010, ecological policies slowed losses (-0.40 × 10⁶ t), highlighting policy effectiveness; (2) Scenario Projections (2030): Cropland Protection (CPS): Achieved a net carbon gain (0.22 × 10⁶ t) by restricting urban encroachment on cropland; Ecological Protection (EPS): Reduced losses to 0.31 × 10⁶ t via forest/grassland conservation (+5,716 ha); Economic Development (EDS): Accelerated carbon loss (0.34 × 10⁶ t) due to unchecked urban expansion; (3) Spatial Insights: Carbon losses clustered in urban cores (Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou), while gains occurred in southwestern forested areas (Moran’s I >0.32, p<0.01). The PLUS-InVEST integration enabled high-resolution, policy-relevant simulations, demonstrating that strategic land-use planning (e.g., CPS) can reconcile economic growth with carbon neutrality.

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