Response of Global Mesoscale Convective Systems to Increased CO 2 and Uniform SST Warming in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are critical components of global energy and water cycles and significantly contribute to extreme weather events. However, projecting future MCS behavior remains challenging due to the limitations of regional models and the inadequate representation of MCSs in coarser climate models. In this study, we use GFDL's global storm‐resolving model (GSRM), X‐SHiELD, to explore the response of global MCSs to both increased sea surface temperatures (SST) and elevated CO 2 levels using three sets of unique two‐year‐long warming simulations. We find that SST warming leads to an increase in MCS occurrence over ocean regions while reducing it over land, whereas elevated CO 2 results in an overall increase over ocean and land. When SST and CO 2 increases are combined, their impacts on MCS changes are generally additive. Using stepwise multiple linear regression, we identify the key environmental drivers of these changes across five MCS hotspots, highlighting the regional variability in MCS responses. Furthermore, MCS‐associated precipitation and its contribution to total rainfall are shaped by changes in both MCS frequency and the precipitation intensity within each event. By utilizing the explicit MCS‐resolving capabilities of GSRMs, this study provides critical insights into future changes in MCS characteristics and their implications for global precipitation patterns.
Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.
Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé, mais le titre doit être comparé manuellement.
- Titre Crossref
- Response of Global Mesoscale Convective Systems to Increased CO <sub>2</sub> and Uniform SST Warming in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model
- Date Crossref
- 01/06/2025
- Éditeur
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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Tsinghua University Department of Earth System Science pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Princeton University Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science — University Corporation for Atmospheric Research et Department of Earth System Science — Tsinghua University, avec 2 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.