Investigating Factors Driving Shifts in Subtype Dominance within H5Nx Clade 2.3.4.4b High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza viruses

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Abstract H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b high-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have decimated wild bird and poultry populations globally since the autumn of 2020. In the United Kingdom (UK) and in continental Europe, the H5N8 subtype predominated during the first epizootic wave of 2020/21, with few detections of H5N1. However, during the second (2021/22) and third (2022/23) epizootic waves, H5N1 was the dominant subtype. The rapid shift in dominance from H5N8 to H5N1 was likely driven by a combination of virological, immunological, and/or host-related factors. In this study, we compared viral fitness and immunological responses in ducks, a key reservoir species, using dominant genotypes of H5N1 (genotype AB) and H5N8 (genotype A) from the second wave. While viral shedding dynamics were similar for both viruses, H5N8 was more pathogenic. Antigenic analysis of post-infection duck sera revealed that the haemagglutinin (HA) protein was antigenically similar across clade 2.3.4.4b H5 HPAIVs, but neuraminidase (NA) proteins displayed different patterns of cross-reactivity. We also modelled a scenario where ducks were pre-exposed to H5N1 (genotype C) or H5N8 (genotype A) from the first wave and subsequently challenged with either homologous or heterologous subtypes from the second wave (genotype AB or A). Despite the absence of seroconversion, pre-exposure to different subtypes resulted in varying clinical outcomes following challenge. These findings indicate that both viral and immunological factors likely played significant roles in the emergence and spread of H5Nx HPAIVs in wild bird populations.

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