Premium Climate Services for Mining Company, How Good is It?

Le résumé fourni par la source

Abstract In recent years, the BMKG (Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency) has provided premium climate services to PT Berau Coal, including 10-day and monthly rainfall forecasts. These services are crucial for mining operations in preparing work plans, as rainfall can make roads at the mining site slippery, leading to reduced effective working hours, increased pump operating hours, and higher fuel costs. This study evaluates the performance of monthly rainfall predictions for three mining sites (Sambarata, Lati, and Binungan) over the period 2005-2023, based on the availability of rainfall observation data at the mining sites, using the RMSE and Percent of Correct (PoC) methods. The analysis shows that for a lead time of one (six) month, i.e., a forecast given one (six) month in advance, the average RMSE is 94 (95) mm/month. The highest error is observed in January, at 140 (144) mm/month, while the lowest error occurs in August, at 65 (69) mm/month. The PoC values range from 42% to 89%. These results indicate that the climate service forecasts have reasonably good accuracy and can be used as a reference in decision-making, although potential errors, as indicated by the RMSE values, should still be considered.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.